000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 25N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 
17N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER 
E WITH AXIS FROM 10N117W TO 25N117W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 130W. FURTHER E IN THE TROPICS ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 110W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER FROM  
FROM 30N138W TO 29N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT. NW OF FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE TO 9 
FT IN NW SWELL. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 12 HOURS. 
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N130W. FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 20N WEST OF 120W 
PRODUCING SEAS TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH 
MID WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT  
N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W. THESE WINDS AND SWELL WILL LAST 
UNTIL TUE.   
  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN 
45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 13N96W WITH SEAS TO 8.  
FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS AND 
THEN DIMINISH. 
           
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
HAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH SEAS IN 
THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO 15-
20 KT BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT TO 20-
25 KT LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW SEAS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE MUCH OF THE GULF ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT 
NEAR 26N. 

$$
FORMOSA