000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.                              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 09N85W TO 06N92W  
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ... 
TO 03N102W TO 04N120W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N119W TO 
10N123W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS 
MEAN AXIS STRETCHES AS FAR SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N100W. AN ILL-DEFINED 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N113W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
EXTENDING NEWD TO ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  
A JET STREAM BRANCH RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN CREST OF THE RIDGE 
IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE IT SPILLS TO THE SE. 

A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
IDENTIFIED TO BE NEAR 16N132W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING SEWD TO 
NEAR 11N120W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS 
BEING  ADVECTED NE AND E...BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS WITHIN THE 
ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. EXPECT A NARROW PLUME OF THIS MOISTURE  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST TODAY IN THE FORM OF 
MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY 
FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE BASE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE 
UPPER TROUGH.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 01N80W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A CREST OVER THE 
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY 
UPPER AIR ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W.
   
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N128W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR 17N115W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO 
A GENTLE CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N145W. A WEAK TROUGH 
MOVING WWD IS TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 131W 
FROM 08N-12N. ANOTHER SIMILAR TROUGH IS NEAR 126W FROM 08N-13N. 
THESE TROUGHS ARE IDENTIFIED AS MOISTURE BULGES IN THE TPW 
IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON A WWD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS BEFORE THEY BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN  
SATELLITE TIME SERIES ANIMATION. THE 1026 MB HIGH WILL MOVE TO 
NW TO NEAR 31N132W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HIGH BETWEEN IT AND 
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW U.S. HAS RESULTED IN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W-117W...WITH SEAS THERE 
TO 8 FT. THE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA TO ALONG ABOUT 24N BY LATE MON. THE GRADIENT THEN 
RELAXES WITH 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY ON TUE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT BY 
TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT 
WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED BECOMING NW AT 5-15 KT LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE MUCH OF THE GULF ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT 
NEAR 26N. 
  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS CURRENTLY WITHIN 
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W INCLUDING THE GULF WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT LATER THIS MORNING...AND TO VARIABLE 10 KT 
OR LESS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE.
           
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
HAVE INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH SEAS IN 
THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO 
15-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND 
SW SWELL. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AND FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA...THESE WINDS WILL BE FORECAST TO 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY ON TUE BEFORE 
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
WITH LOW SEAS. 

$$
AGUIRRE