000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092147 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN FEB 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N77W TO 05N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES W TO 05N110W...THEN NW TO 07N117W... TURNS SW TO 05N124W...THEN W-NW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N100W TO 05.5N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06-13N BETWEEN 112-132W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING SW DISSECTING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 12N100W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13N116W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N122W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THEN E ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 16N132W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE MERGING WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. THE COMBINED DIFFLUENCE CONTRIBUTES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AN OCCASIONAL TSTM... DEVELOPING OVER AND N OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED N... BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 01N81W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO CREST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC NEAR 27N62W. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N125W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 14N107W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A GENTLE CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N145W. NW-N WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 24N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N WITHIN 150 NM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY MIDNIGHT. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA TO ABOUT 25N BY LATE MON. THE GRADIENT THEN RELAXES WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA BY SUNRISE TUE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED BECOMING NW AT 5-15 KT LATE WED. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...WITH A SW-NW 5 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS S OF 29N TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG NW FETCH AREA NEAR 25N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE WITH NW 15- 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS. EXPECT NW 5-10 KT WINDS ON THU. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ON SAT...WITH VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND EARLY MON BECOMING VARIABLE AT 5- 10 KT THROUGH EARLY WED. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NEXT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT SURGE TO BEGIN ON WED EVENING INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON THU. EXPECT A 20-25 KT SURGE BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...AND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON...AND REPEAT AGAIN ON MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. $$ NELSON