000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N78W TO 05N90W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 05N110W TO 07N118W TO 05N125W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W AND 122W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 102W 
AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER 
N OF 20N W OF 115W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS 
NEAR 15N131W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
112W AND 122W. FURTHER E IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
N OF 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 105W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
 
1026 MB HIGH PRES RELATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N127W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 
31N140W TO 24N150W. THIS FRONT WILL ADVECT NW SWELL TO 9 FT IN 
24 HOURS OVER THE NW CORNER AND LAST 12 HOURS. FURTHER S... 
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 19N 
WEST OF 122W IS PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THERE THROUGH MID WEEK. IN 12 HOURS ALONG THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE 
FORECAST. THESE WINDS AND SWELL WILL LAST UNTIL TUE.   

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING 
THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 8 TO 
10 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 BY THIS EVENING...AND TO 2O KT OR LESS BY MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
RELAXES. 
             
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN AND DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY MON 
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT WITH 
SEAS TO 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FLUCTUATIONG PRESSURE GRADEINT WILL ALLOW 
FOR NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT MOST 
SECTIONS OF THE GULF.
 
$$
FORMOSA