000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091001 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN FEB 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 02N78W TO 05N85W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS TO 05N96W TO 04N107W TO 06N116W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-116W...AND ALSO FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 118W-121W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N116W TO 09.5N121W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 19N110W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 129W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE THROUGH 21N125W 29N123W TO BEYOND 34N120W. EXTENSIVE MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 129W...AND TO NW OF A LINE FROM 26N129W TO 21N140W. TO THE S...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVING NW IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO NE NEAR 15N131W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER RIDGE. THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED NE TO E FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 106W-130W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS BEING ASSISTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IN ITS ADVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO FROM 18N-21N...AND ALSO OVER FAR SE MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 23N100W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 06N101W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD UPPER RIDGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRESENT. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION KEEPING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENTS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N124W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 23N118W TO NEAR 18N113W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO A GENTLE CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 131W FROM 10N-13N. NW TO N WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N AND E OF 117W. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA TO NEAR THIS EVENING... AND TO WITHIN THE AREA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 114W-117W...AND N OF 27N E OF 118W BY LATE MON NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0350 UTC LAST NIGHT CAPTURED THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE WIND SWATH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 BY THIS EVENING...AND TO 2O KT OR LESS BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RELAXES. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY MON EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FLUCTUATIONG PRESSURE GRADEINT WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT MOST SECTIONS OF THE GULF. $$ AGUIRRE