000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090342 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN FEB 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 02N78W TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W THROUGH POINTS AT 04N98W...07N115W AND 05N125W THEN CONTINUING BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCASIONALLY FLARING WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER...AND N OF...THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N107W TO 08N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED UNDER A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N110W TO 11N130W. ...DISCUSSION... A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING SW INTO THE AREA FROM TEXAS AT 32N96W TO A BASE OVER THE EPAC NEAR 19N107W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 15N117W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 34N117W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD E ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF A LINE FROM 32N110W TO 19N140W. FURTHER S A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 13N131W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED OVER THE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE MERGING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DIFFLUENCE CONTRIBUTES TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING N OF THE ITCZ NEAR ALONG 11N BETWEEN 110-130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS IS ADVECTED N ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 10-21N BETWEEN 112-130W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED E IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO...AND IS OBSERVED WITHIN A 75 NM WIDE TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...WIDENING AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AT 23N100W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 06N101W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107-116W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR THE MATURED AND DECAYING CLUSTERS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 03N83W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO AN UNSTABLE CREST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC NEAR 24N63W. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY THE ISOLATED CLUSTERS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY STREAMING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N123W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A SHARP CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 16N100W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO A GENTLE CREST JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W. NW-N WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN EVENING WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA TO ABOUT 24N ON MON. THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT EXPECTED LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5- 10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED BECOMING NW AT 5-15 KT LATE WED THROUGH LATE FRI. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS S OF 29N THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 25N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS. EXPECT NW 5-10 KT WINDS ON THU. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT THROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 7-10 FT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TAD AND THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE LATE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN EVENING THROUGH LATE MON MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE THU. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS EVENING... THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN... AND REPEAT AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON...AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...AND ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. $$ NELSON