000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081552 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT FEB 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A MINIMAL GALE IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING WITH THE AID OF OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO THE SW GULF AND INITIATING MORE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY SUN...WITH ONLY 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. BEYOND THAT...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH NEXT STRONG GAP EVENT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N98W TO 07N102W TO 06N121W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W...AND FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 20N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. FURTHER E IN THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N102W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 95W. 1024 MB HIGH PRES RELATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N123W. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH TOGA-TAO BUOYS INDICATE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 20N WEST OF 118W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE COMBINED SEAS TO AT LEAST 9 FT IN THIS AREA...DUE IN PART TO MIXED SWELL FROM THE NW AND SW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1000 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 42N134W TO HAWAII WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NW CORNER TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING NW OF THE AREA. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY SUN. FOR BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES INTO TEXAS FROM LATE SUN THROUGH TUE...FOLLOWED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO MON AND TUE. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA FROM LATE SUN INTO TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE AND THE LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS. NW FLOW WILL PULSE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS WITH 20 TO 25 KT ARE PRESENTLY OCCURRING. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PROCESS TO REPEAT SUN MORNING AND SUN AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN MON MORNING AND MON AFTERNOON. ONLY A 15 TO 20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED TUE MORNING. $$ FORMOSA