000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080918 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC INDICATED GAP WIND FLOW TO 30 KT...AND SHIP C6FR3 CORROBORATED THIS BY REPORTING WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 07 UTC. THIS MAY TOUCH ON A MINIMAL GALE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE AID OF OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO THE SW GULF AND INITIATING MORE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT BY SUNRISE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY SUN...WITH ONLY 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. BEYOND THAT...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH NEXT STRONG GAP EVENT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 07N88W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N88W TO 04N95W TO 05N105W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWS THE TROUGH...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 20N135W...CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N132W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WAS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ RESULTING IN AREAS OF CONVECTION...BUT THIS HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. SIMILARLY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N98W TO 05N85W WAS SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...BUT THIS HAS TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED. 1023 MB HIGH PRES RELATED TO THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N123W. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH TOGA-TAO BUOYS INDICATE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 18N WEST OF 120W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE COMBINED SEAS TO AT LEAST 9 FT IN THIS AREA...DUE IN PART TO MIXED SWELL FROM THE NW AND SW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 38N137W TO HAWAII WILL DRIFT WEST TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING NW OF THE AREA. STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N140W LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY SUN. FOR BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES INTO TEXAS FROM LATE SUN THROUGH TUE...FOLLOWED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO MON AND TUE. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA FROM LATE SUN INTO TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TUE INTO WED AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE AND THE LOW PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS. NW FLOW WILL PULSE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP WINDS WILL PULSE 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN REPEAT AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. ONLY A 15 TO 20 KT EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. $$ CHRISTENSEN