000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT FEB 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 20-25 KT THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE 20- 25 KT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE SAT NIGHT DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT AGAIN...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUN EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MON MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 02N78W TO 05N87W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS CONTINUES W TO 07N103W...SW TO 04N115W...NW TO 07N129W...THEN FINALLY WSW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED OVER AND N OF THE THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N90W TO 09N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM OF 07N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 09N117W TO 12N126W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING E ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUING SW ACROSS SW TEXAS AND NW OLD MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY FROM 19N140W TO BEYOND 32N125W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE...AND NOW SPILLING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER S AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FILL NEAR 13N132W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N116W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...AND IS STILL ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N117W TO 12N126W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND PREVIOUS STRONGER CONVECTION...IS ADVECTED NE IN A 240 NM WIDE TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO... CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT OVER THE TROPICS AT 14N99W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 05N109W. A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR E PORTION NEAR 01N83W WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A CREST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR 25N69W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE THIN DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING N-NE AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ACROSS SE OLD MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN TURNS NE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING OVER THE ATLC JUST N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. OTHERWISE THIS RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...EXCEPT FOR THE SMALL AREA NEAR 06N89W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL PASS N OVER NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N122W WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 16N107W. NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 24N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SAT MORNING WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR 28N114W AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS SUN EVENING WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA ON MON. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AGAIN WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT EXPECTED LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED BECOMING NW AT 10-15 KT LATE WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS S OF 29N ON SAT EVENING... WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 26N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON... THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE TUE AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A NE 20-25 KT PULSE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...THEN REPEATING AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. $$ NELSON