000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI FEB 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED 20-30 KT THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS 7-10 FT. THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE 20- 25 KT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE SAT NIGHT DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT AGAIN...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. NORTHERLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN EVENING THROUGH LATE MON MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER NORTHERLY 20-25 KT SURGE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N77W TO 03N82W...THEN TURNS NW TO 03N85W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS CONTINUES NW TO 06N94W...THEN W TO 06N104W...SW TO 04N115W...NW TO 07.5N129W...THEN FINALLY WSW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N87W TO 04N91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N98W TO 05N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS UNDER A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N118W TO 13N130W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING E ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUING SW ACROSS SW TEXAS AND NW OLD MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 19N140W TO BEYOND 32N117W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE NOW SPILLING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FURTHER S AN UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FILL NEAR 14N133W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N117W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...AND STILL SOMEWHAT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N118W TO 13N130W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND PREVIOUS STRONGER CONVECTION...IS ADVECTED NE IN A 300 NM WIDE TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING NE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS. THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 10N80W...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO A CREST OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR 26N68W. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ. SOME OF THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING N-NE ACROSS SE OLD MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...THEN TURNS NE ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING OVER SE FLORIDA. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N124W WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A CREST LAST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 16N107W. NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 23N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SAT MORNING WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING NEAR 28N114W AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS SUN EVENING WITH THE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N WITHIN 150 NM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA ON MON. THE GRADIENT RELAXES AGAIN WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10- 15 KT EXPECTED LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT FURTHER RELAXES WITH NW-N 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY WED BECOMING NW AT 10-15 KT LATE WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS AT 5-15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 29N ON SAT EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 25N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON... THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT WITH NW 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LATE TUE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE TUE AND WED WITH NW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A NE 20-25 KT PULSE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT...THEN REPEATING AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. $$ NELSON