000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH  
STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FILTERING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO 
THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NEARLY 10 
MB DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE ISTHMUS AND SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END. WITH 
ADDED IMPETUS FROM MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS ARE MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL 
WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT 
BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 
INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN SAT. 
LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS WILL AGAIN REACH MINIMAL GALE BY EARLY SUN 
MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 02N80W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 05N109W TO 08N123W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER 
N OF 20N W OF 130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO 
TO S BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 13N132W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N101W. THIS LOW HAS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER AND 
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 107W.

UPPER RIDGING N OF 20N W OF 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1024 MB 
CENTERED NEAR 28N131W. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO TRADES FROM 
10N TO 20N W OF 122W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS 
AREA...SUPPORTING MWW3 INITIALIZATIONS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA 
OF FRESH TRADES...DUE IN PART TO NW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...20 TO 25 KT GAP WINDS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N E 
OF 88W WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT 
BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT OF THIS EACH MORNING THROUGH MON 
WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 8 FT.

$$
FORMOSA