000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH  
STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A STALLED FRONT OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FILTERING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO 
THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NEARLY 10 
MB DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE ISTHMUS AND SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END. WITH 
ADDED IMPETUS FROM OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
12 FT. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY AND THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 25 KT TONIGHT 
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS WILL AGAIN 
REACH MINIMAL GALE BY EARLY SUN MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES 
BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04N107W TO 08N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED 15 TO 20 
KT GAP WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY EARLY 
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A 
REPEAT OF THIS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH SEAS PEAKING 
NEAR 8 FT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE FRI...AND  FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 29N ON SAT EVENING AS STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 
25N. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON INTO TUE AS 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.

ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 120W...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0430 UTC 
INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT NW FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF 
BAJA...RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY BY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KT FROM LATE SUN THROUGH MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES WEST 
OF THE AREA AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY FROM 
24N120W TO 10N135W. UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN 
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 110W SOUTH OF 20N IS SUPPORTING AREAS 
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE RIDGE NEAR 
11N100W...SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
95W AND 105W. 

UPPER RIDGING W OF 130W IS SUPPORTING A 1022 MB CENTERED NEAR 
28N130W. THIS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 
20N W OF 120W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS 
AREA...SUPPORTING MWW3 INITIALIZATIONS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA 
OF STRONG TRADES...DUE IN PART TO NW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
 
$$
CHRISTENSEN