000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS ARE SURGING 
THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MAXIMUM 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO MINIMAL 
GALE FORCE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
MORNING ON FRI. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY 
ON FRI EVENING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT TO 20-
25 KT WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING. 
THE SAT NIGHT DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
OF 30-35 KT AGAIN...AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING. 
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN EVENING THROUGH 
LATE MON MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED MON NIGHT 
THROUGH LATE WED OF NEXT WEEK.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA  
AT 06N77W TO 02N81W...THEN W TO 03N83W  WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH TURNS NW TO 
06N91W...THEN WIGGLES W THROUGH 04N108W TO 08N123W TO BEYOND
07N140W. 

CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM OF 
08.5N85W...04N85W AND 04N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 06N93W TO 06N100W...AND WELL N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N107W TO 12N116W TO 10N123W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF 
10N122W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING E THROUGH THE NE PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY FROM 32N112W TO 
21N120W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE FAR 
NW PORTION WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SPREADING E ACROSS THE 
RIDGE AXIS...AND SPILLING SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N 
OF 28N AND W OF 118W. FURTHER S AN UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 
14N131W AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N109W. THESE 
TWO FEATURES COMBINE TO SET UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ENHANCING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE N OF THE ITCZ. 
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN A NARROW 
TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING E ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO TO THE 
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS.

THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD  
UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE STATIONARY AT 
09N78W WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE W SUBTROPICAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MOVE N ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT.
  
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N131W WITH A LOW  
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST LAST DETECTED 
BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 14N104W. NW-N WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE 
OBSERVED N OF 23N E OF THE RIDGE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN NW SWELL. THE 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH NW 20-25 KT 
WINDS NEAR 29N116W BY LATE SUN. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL 
SPREAD S ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA ON MON. THE 
GRADIENT RELAXES AGAIN ON TUE AND WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT...MOSTLY NW...WINDS AT 5-10 KT WITH 
SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE NW WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE FRI...AND  
FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 29N 
ON SAT EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SEAS 
BUILD TO ABOUT 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 25N. THE GRADIENT 
WILL RELAX ON MON INTO TUE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE.
               
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A NE 20-25 KT PULSE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNRISE FRI...THEN ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT LATE FRI NIGHT 
INTO EARLY SAT. THE LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. ONLY 
15-20 KT KT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT AND LATE TUE 
NIGHT.
 
$$
NELSON