000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU FEB 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS PAST EVENING HAS RESULTED IN WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS NOTED IN A 03 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS. THE STRONG GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE INFLUENCES CEASE. THIS WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH DURATION FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO AT LEAST 8 FT HOWEVER WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GAP WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...REACHING MINIMAL GALE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL REPEAT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG GAP FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SAT...BRINGING MINIMAL GALES TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N98W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 08N119W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NORTH AND 60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT...MOSTLY NW...WINDS AT 5-10 KT WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE FRI...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 29N ON SAT EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 25N. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON INTO TUE. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N E OF 120W...NW TO N WINDS TO 20 KT WERE EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MIGRATED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FOR NOW...BUT SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PULSE TO 20 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE BAJA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE SUNDAY AS STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER 20-25 KT EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT PULSES TO ONLY 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 09N105W. UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM THE UPPER CYCLONE ALONG 07N-08N IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 115W SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE UPPER CYCLONE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N122W TO 12N130W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WIND FLOW FROM ROUGHLY 10N TO 20N WEST OF 125W. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS REACHING AT LEAST 10 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...PARTLY INFLUENCED BY LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ CHRISTENSEN/NELSON