000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N78W TO 04N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 08N85W...THEN SW TO 04N93W... THEN W-NW TO 04N100W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO 08N116W...THEN W TO 08N130W...AND FINALLY SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN NOTED IS CLUSTERS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM OF 05N81W AND 03N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N108W TO 11N129W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ HAS SEPARATED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS N TO S FROM 09N134W TO 16N132W. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED W OF AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE...AND NOW LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N110W AND CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA TO A BASE AT 25N113W. FURTHER S AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N128W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO A SECOND ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE STATIONARY AT 10N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE E NEAR 13N115W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 23N122W. THIS RIDGE WILL PREVENT THE UPPER TROUGH FROM PICKING UP THE CYCLONE AT 19N128W AND IT SHOULD MEANDER IN THE SAME AREA FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG...AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N UNDER THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE...THEN TURNS E AND LATER NE...IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONCENTRATING INTO A DENSE 330 NM WIDE TROPICAL PLUME STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT ACROSS TEXAS. THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 05N77W WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... THEN TURNING NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT FOR SMALL AREA OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 31N130W WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST DETECTED BY SCATTEROMETER WINDS AT 12N102W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 22N E OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 112W...WITH SEAS OF 5- 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND DECAYING CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-6 FT LATER TONIGHT AS THE NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR AN EXPECTED PULSE OF 15-20 KT N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA ON FRI. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON SAT...BUT TIGHTEN AGAIN ON SUN WITH NW 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR 29N116W BY LATE SUN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER S ON MON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT MOSTLY NW WINDS AT 5-10 KT/SEAS 1-2 FT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE FRI...FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 29N ON SAT EVENING WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SEAS BUILD TO 6 FT IN LONG FETCH AREAS NEAR 25N. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A NOCTURNAL NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU...BRIEFLY RELAXING TO 15-20 KT LATE THU...BUT IMMEDIATELY INCREASING AFTER SUNSET THU TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS A GALE WARNING MAY BE POSTED. THE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RELAX LATE FRI WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ONLY A 20 KT MAXIMUM ON FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SAT NIGHT EVENT...AND SUGGESTS 20-30 KT WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNRISE ON MON. AGAIN THERE IS SOME HINT OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IF THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS A GALE WARNING MAY BE POSTED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A NE-E 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER 20-25 KT EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI...THEN ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE LATE NIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON