000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC WED FEB 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 4N78W TO 10N85W TO 4N100W. ITCZ FROM 
4N100W TO 8N115W TO 8N130W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 112W-122W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 21N140W. DOWNSTREAM SHARP UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
20N127W TO 10N131W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N128W 
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH WHERE 
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 120 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION 6N-12N BETWEEN 112W-122W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 3N79W 
ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 112W. AN AREA OF 8 
TO 10 FT NW SWELL IS FROM 12N-22N W OF 121W. THE RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THU WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
FROM 10N-20N W OF 125W WED.

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...LEADING TO NLY WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU. THE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON FRI.
 
$$
DGS