000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051013 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 04N90W TO 05N97W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N97W TO 08N113W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 300 NM NORTH...AND 120 NM SOUTH...OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N120W TO 15N130W TO 08N128W CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N TO 13N ALONG ROUGHLY 130W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL START TO LOSE UPPER SUPPORT THROUGH TODAY AND DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THU. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND PASSING THROUGH 140W IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N130W. LATEST ASCAT DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM 13N TO 20N WEST OF 115W. LATEST ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS APPROACHING 8 FT. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DAMPENS OUT...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG 23N SUPPORTING A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N130W. THE NET IMPACT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOR TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FROM 10N TO 20N WEST OF 115W...RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD ALONG WITH THE INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW...AND MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO FORM COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT FROM 09N TO 22N WEST OF 120W BY LATE THU. FOR THE WATERS N OF 22N WEST OF THE COAST OF BAJA TO 115W...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING. VARIOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INDICATE NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 22N EAST OF 115W THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER FEATURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...THEN DIMINISH THU. MODELS FORETELL OF ANOTHER BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID/UPPER IMPULSE SWEEPING ACROSS BAJA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS WILL RUN MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH FRI...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS BECOMING N AT 10 TO 15 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 1-3 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GULF WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH EARLY WED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N OF 27N WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT WED...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N ON WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT DUE MOSTLY TO LOCAL EFFECTS THU THROUGH EARLY SAT... THEN BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON SAT NIGHT. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NOCTURNAL PULSE TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY FRI MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 20 KT MAXIMUM ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER 20-25 KT EVENT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AND REPEATING AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX AT 20 KT SAT NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT ON SUN NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN/NELSON