000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PANAMA AND COLOMBIAN BORDER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...CONTINUES SW TO 05N97W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO 09N108W...THEN W TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 09N131W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING W OF THE TROUGH TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 04N78W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 05N81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N103W TO 07N106W TO 07N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 06N132W AND EXTENDS NE TO 15N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N120W TO 14N128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N128W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 14N132W TO A SECOND ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE AT 10N130W. THIS PATTERN IS SHIFTING E WITH TIME WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF ITS AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ AND ITS EMBEDDED TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N WITHIN ABOUT 960 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE TURNING E AND CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING E ACROSS OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 21-25N AND EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO FRONTAL CONVECTION FLARING OVER MISSISSIPPI. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 10N107W AND ENHANCED CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103-111W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM S OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N97W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N E OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 115W WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT NW 15-20 KT WINDS WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE COMBINED SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS BECOMING N AT 10-15 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 1-3 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GULF WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH EARLY WED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N OF 27N WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT WED...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N ON WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT DUE MOSTLY TO LOCAL EFFECTS THU THROUGH EARLY SAT... THEN BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON SAT NIGHT. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NOCTURNAL PULSE TO 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU...THEN REPEAT AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 20 KT MAXIMUM ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER 20-25 KT EVENT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AND REPEATING AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX AT 20 KT SAT NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON