000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE FEB 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW ACROSS PANAMA FROM 08.5N80W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N82W...CONTINUES SW TO 04N90W...THEN TURNS W TO 04N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO 08N109W...THEN SW TO 07N117W...THEN NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 99N130W...WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUING W OF THE TROUGH FROM 07N132W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 30 NM OF 04N78W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N90W TO 06N81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N103W TO 08N109W TO 08N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AT 07N132W AND EXTENDS NE TO 15N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N120W TO 15N130W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N129W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 14N132W TO A SECOND ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE AT 09N131W. THE PATTERN IS SHIFTING E WITH TIME WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF ITS AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ AND ITS EMBEDDED TROUGH. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N WITHIN ABOUT 940 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE TURNING E INTO A NARROW PLUME STREAMING ACROSS OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 21-25N. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 09.5N107W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103-111W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W TO 15N103W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 24N E OF THE RIDGE TO ALONG 115W WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT NW 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN SEAS OF 3-5 FT NEXT WEEKEND AS THE WINDS BECOMING N AT 10-15 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 1-3 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS GULF WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH EARLY WED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE N OF 27N WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT WED...AND SPREAD S ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N ON WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT THU THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATE SAT... INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON SAT NIGHT...AND 20-25 KT/SEAS 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NOCTURNAL PULSE TO 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU...THEN REPEAT AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON FRI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 20 KT MAXIMUM ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT A MINIMAL GALE EVENT BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER 20-25 KT EVENT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AND REPEATING AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SAT. THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX AT 20 KT SAT NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 25 KT ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON