000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N90W TO 04N99W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N99W TO 08N108W TO 05N117W TO 07N127W TO 
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N 
OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 115W-120W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT 
HAD MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY LIFTS NE. A SECOND WEAKER 
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE INTO WED ALLOW WINDS TO AGAIN 
REACH 20 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 
FT IN THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 125W WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 
FT BY LATE TODAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N130W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT SSW TO 14N131W TO NEAR 07N134W. THE 
TROUGH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST...FOLLOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE 
ALONG 115W SOUTH OF 20N. UPPER FORCING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W-120W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED TO THE E 
OF THE RIDGE NEAR 10N107W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINLY SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS 
BUILDING TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 145W AND IS 
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED 
1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 33N133W WITH A RIDGE 
STRETCHING SEWD TO NEAR 20N115W. THE 1025 MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SLIDE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME 
LEADING TO AN INCREASE OF THE PRES GRADIENT ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 
19N W OF 125W WHERE NE TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO 

A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 05N B 
BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 82W-90W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A 
WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL FORM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. OTHER THAN MODEST CONVECTION...LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC LAST NIGHT 
REVEALED N GAP WINDS OF 25-30 KT...LEFT OVER FROM STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE