000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040908
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC TUE FEB 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N92W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 08N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W 
AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC INDICATED GAP 
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...LEFT OVER FROM STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY AS 
THE HIGH PRES DISSIPATES NORTH OF THE AREA.

MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT 
HAD MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY LIFTS NE. A SECOND WEAKER 
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE INTO WED ALLOW WINDS TO AGAIN 
REACH 20 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 
FT IN THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 125W WILL GRADUALLY DECAY BELOW 8 
FT BY LATE TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 10N135W TO 06N130W IS 
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST...FOLLOWING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALONG 115W 
SOUTH OF 20N. UPPER FORCING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS EAST OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE NEAR 12N105W...SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM 07N TO 
12N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS BUILDING WEST 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 145W AND IS FOLLOWING THE TROUGH 
EASTWARD. THIS IS ALLOWING 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO FORM 
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 
12N TO 20N WEST OF 125W TONIGHT AND WED AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. SEAS ARE GENERALLY LESS 
THAN 8 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 9 FT TONIGHT AND WED FROM 12N 
TO 20N WEST OF 125W AS THE TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASES AND LONGER 
PERIOD NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE TRADES WILL REACH 20 TO 
25 KT FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 120W BY LATE THU WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 
FT. 

PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS 
OVER 120 NM OF05N86W ALONG THE WEAK MONSOON TROUGH. GLOBAL 
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL FORM IN THIS AREA 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN MODEST CONVECTION...LITTLE 
IMPACT IS EXPECTED.

$$
CHRISTENSEN