000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040342 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE FEB 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N91W TO 06N100W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N100W TO 07N107W TO 05N115W TO 07N126W. IT RESUMES AT 06N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-87W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD AT 24N132.5W S TO 16N134W SE TO 08N133W. TO ITS W...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 10N125W TO 05N131W. ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH FROM 08N TO 10N. RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD AND COMBINING WITH A SIMILAR SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE IN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 19N-24N. THE COMBINED MOISTURE FLOW THEN ADVECTS EWD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SOUTHERN TAIL PORTION OF A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS JUST MOVING INLAND NW MEXICO. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO MOVED INLAND NW MEXICO. MODERATE NW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST NE OF THE AREA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND HAS SPREAD SE ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 119W-122W. SEAS TO 12 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA OF MODERATE NW FLOW. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 116W-130W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE MODERATE NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W-125W...AND THEN TO N OF 29N E OF 120W BY TUE EVENING. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON WED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 25N TO 30N E OF 121W...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 121W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION WHERE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT EXISTS E OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MOVING E IS NEAR 11N107W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SE OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SEWD FROM A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA AT 37N134W THROUGH 30N132W TO 24N123W...AND TO NEAR 21N114W. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ AS WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING SOME IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 14N-16N BY TUE AFTERNOON ...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 127W-137W BY TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE TRADES INTO WED EVENING. GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN A SMALL N TO S SWATH THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING TUE MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE