000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040253 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON FEB 03 2014

CORRECTED SURFACE ANALYSIS TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N92W TO 07N101W. 
ITCZ FROM 7N101W TO 06N111W TO 05N120W TO AS A SURFACE TROUGH S 
OF 14N ALONG 127W...THEN CONTINUES TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-
87W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW AT 24N134W S TO 
16N134W TO 09N134W. TO ITS W...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER 
THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY 
A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...IS ANALYZED ALONG 127W FROM 05N-
13N. VERTICAL MOTION E OF BOTH TROUGHS IS CREATING INSTABILITY 
IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT VICINITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. RESULTANT UPPER 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD AND 
COMBINING WITH A SIMILAR SWATH OF UPPER MOISTURE IN MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH E OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 19N-25N. THE COMBINED MOISTURE FLOW THEN 
ADVECTS EWD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS. 

THE SOUTHERN TAIL PORTION OF A RATHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS NOTED 
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA SW TO ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO NEAR 25N116W. A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS ALONG 117W N OF 29N. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATE NW FLOW THAT  
FOLLOWS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE BEING REPORTED 
IN THE NW SWELLS BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER 
TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TO INLAND THE WESTERN LATE TONIGHT AND 
TUE. THE 8-11 FT NW SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY TUE 
AFTERNOON...TO 8 FT TUE EVENING...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED 
AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE N OF 
25N E OF 121W...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 121W. OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION WHERE CONVECTION ALONG AND THE ITCZ AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE THAT EXISTS E OF 
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-111W. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW 
IS EVIDENT NEAR 11N108.5W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 
180 NM NE OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD THROUGH 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SEWD FROM A 1027 
MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N134W THROUGH 30N132W TO 
24N123W...AND TO NEAR 19N110W. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRES NEAR THE AS 
WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING SOME IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN 
AREA OF NE 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 14N-16N BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND 
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 127W-137W BY WED AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT THERE.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN A 
SMALL N TO S SWATH THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT 
THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT DURING TUE MORNING.

$$
AGUIRRE