000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031513
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO 5N95W TO 7N101W. ITCZ FROM 7N101W 
TO A SURFACE TROUGH S OF 15N ALONG 126W...THEN CONTINUES 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S 
AND 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 20N125W TO 10N136W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
NW OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN 
113W-133W. THE RIDGE IS BEING FLATTENED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM 
FROM 32N123W ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 115-125 KT. IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
12N109W TO 3N110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 10N E OF 100W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W. NW SWELL TO 
10 FT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 
133W THE SWELL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

NLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT TUE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TUE AND TRADES WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 125W-135W. THE RIDGE 
WILL WEAKEN WED AND WINDS DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
DGS