000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W TO 06N100W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N100W TO 09N125W TO A SURFACE TROUGH S OF 13N 
ALONG 125W...THEN CONTINUES BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS LOSING STRENGTH AS THE 
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS ALREADY LIFTING NE THROUGH THE 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER 
SOUTH TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT 
ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM 
WILL CROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. THIS 
WILL TAPER OFF TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL BE LATE 
WED INTO THU BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF 25 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GAP 
WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
IS DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE 
FRONT TODAY OVER WATERS N OF 28N W OF 120W WILL DIMINISH THIS 
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST. ASSOCIATED 8 TO 11 FT 
NW SWELL WILL SPREAD AS FAR AS 23N W OF 130W BY LATE TODAY WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH LATE TUE.

FATHER WEST...AN ELONGATED AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
32N130W TO 11N138W TO 06N130W. A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS 
CENTERED E OF THIS TROUGH ALONG 123W...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH 
EAST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MANZANILLO MEXICO SW TO 
04N112W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ SOUTH 
OF 13N ALONG 125W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND 135W. 
 
HIGH PRES ALONG 32N REMAINS WEAK DUE THE COMBINATION OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH W OF 130W ALONG WITH THE VIGOROUS UPPER SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IN TURN IS KEEPING 
TRADE WIND FLOW LIGHT IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EXCEPT TO 20 KT JUST 
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT IN THIS AREA DUE 
IN PART TO THE FRESH TRADES...BUT ALSO DECAYING NW SWELL 
LINGERING IN THE AREA. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL START TO 
PUSH W OF 140W ON TUE. MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD 
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MIGRATES EAST. STRONGER 1025 MB 
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N135W WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS 
FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N W OF 120W TO INCREASE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 
FT BY MID WEEK FROM 12N TO 22N W OF 125W IN LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASED 
TRADES.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN