000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N84W TO 5N95W. ITCZ FROM 5N95W TO 7N125W TO 
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 128W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR W PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED AT 11N127W...WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE AREA 
BETWEEN 120W-135W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM FROM 32N125W ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N106W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
11N112W...THEN CONTINUES TO 5N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N 
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 9N E OF 100W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W. NW SWELL TO 
8 FT IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 135W. 
THE SWELL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
DGS