000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC SUN FEB 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
05N95W TO 07N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180W NM NORTH OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N142W 
TO 05N135W. UPPER FORCING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 12N130W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 133W. THE UPPER RIDGE 
IS ALSO SUPPORTING 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N135W. EAST 
OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH 
AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 120W. TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF MODEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 
12N115W. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TODAY BUT PULSE 
AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE ITCZ.

ASCAT DATA AND BUOY REPORTS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM THE ITCZ TO 15N. DECAYING NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORTER 
PERIOD NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO SUPPORT 
COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT NOTED IN ALTIMETER DATA NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
TO 13N AND WEST OF 125W. 

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS NEIGHBORING UPPER LOW TO THE EAST WILL 
WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NE 
OF HAWAII COMES INTO PHASE WITH THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH W OF 
135W...AND TOGETHER MOVE EAST TO 125W BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL 
INITIALLY WEAKEN THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND ALLOW TRADE WIND 
FLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD...A BUILDING RIDGE 
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PRES TO STRENGTHEN 
WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 125W TUE AND 
WED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DECAYING 
NW SWELL...BUT INCREASE TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W DUE TO 
RESURGENT TRADE WIND AND A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL.  

NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 120W A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING 
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAD BEEN SUPPORTING 
FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF THE COAST. THESE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING 
AS NOTED IN A 0440 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN BY MON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
AN AREA OF NW SWELL INVADING THE WATERS NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 
130W MON...BUT GENERALLY DECAYING BELOW 8 FT TUE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
PRODUCE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SUN AFTERNOON AS 
THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH. A BRIEF PULSE IN 
EXCESS OF 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON 
MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WEAKENING GRADIENT FLOW 
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN