000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT FEB 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 02N85W TO 05N94W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 04N103W TO 05N115W TO 06N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 125W WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N135W N TO 16N135W TO 25N135W AND TO 30N135W WHERE IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN NW FLOW THAT EXISTS TO THE SW OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES SW THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SSW TO NEAR 18N115W. AN ELONGATED CUT- OFF UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY WNW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N118W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSE TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 111W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW IS RESULTING IN BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W-120W. WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEING SW ACROSS THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ADVECT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT KEEPING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION A SWATH OF MOISTURE EVIDENT N OF 20N WHERE BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED STREAMING EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE PLUME DERIVES FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED BETWEEN 140W AND 150W WHICH SPILLS ENE TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...AND THEN ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE EASTWARD TO AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE AREA N OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA AT 34N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N131W TO 25N125W TO NEAR 21N117W. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 121W. LINGERING NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 138W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN AND MON USHERING IN MODERATE NW WIND FLOW ALONG WITH A NW SWELL TRAIN PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD SSE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WHILE STRENGHTENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 86W-88W AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TIGHTENS UP. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LOWERING TO LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ AGUIRRE