000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 05N92W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
05N92W TO 04N100W TO 07N116W TO 06N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER WITH AXIS FROM 
08N133W TO BEYOND 30N133W. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N120W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W. 
FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W WITH AXIS 
ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 95W. 

A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N139W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 20N110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 31N113W TO 26N116W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SE 
TO NEAR 32N130W. A GALE-FORCE LOW MOVING SSE W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL BRING 8 FT NW SWELL INTO NORTHERN PORTION SUN-MON AS 
IT WEAKENS. 

20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA