000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 04N98W TO 06N113W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 133W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG 119W AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
12N80W ARE MAJOR FEATURES AT UPPER LEVELS. DIVERGENCE E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING LARGE AREA OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDINESS 
ROUGHLY FROM 06N-18N BETWEEN 104W-120W. VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA. 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE SURFACE IS ANCHORED BY A HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 36N139W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE FORECAST 
AREA...BUT IS VERY WEAK DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE 
NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA 
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N120W...AND THE SECOND 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 27N127W. THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STRENGTHEN SAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SE 
TO NEAR 32N130W. A GALE-FORCE LOW MOVING SSE W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST WILL BRING LARGE NW SWELL INTO NORTHERN PORTION SUN-MON AS 
IT WEAKENS. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS 
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL EFFECTIVELY 
SHUT DOWN STRONG WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEAKER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO PULSE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE 
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 06Z-15Z. AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS...THE 
RESULT OF LINGERING NW SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY FRESH 
TRADES...WILL SHRINK IN SIZE THROUGH SUN AS THE SWELL DECAYS AND 
THE TRADES WEAKEN. TRADE WINDS WILL RE-INTENSIFY TUE AND WED AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...FAIRLY BENIGN 
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

$$
MUNDELL