000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311005 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N90W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 05N110W TO 07N121W TO 07N130W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 134W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS OVER THE AREA...WITH THE 
FIRST OF THESE FEATURES BEING UPPER RIDGING OF 126W WITH ITS 
MEAN AXIS THROUGH 32N140W 21N137W TO AN ANTICYCLONE AT 03N136W. 
TO ITS NE...UPPER TROUGHING IS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 
WITH ITS SOUTHERN PORTION EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA THROUGH 
32N118W AND TO 29N119W. TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH...A CUT-OFF 
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
LOW SSE TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 114W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE LOW IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W-118W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS. 
WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BEING ACROSS THIS AREA OF CLOUDS... 
EXPECT ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH 
CLOUDS TO ADVECT ENE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT KEEPING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH 
THE EXCEPTION A SWATH DEFINED FROM 25N TO 29N WHERE BROKEN HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED STREAMING EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE 
PLUME DERIVES FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE 
LOCATED BETWEEN 140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH SPILLS ENE 
TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...AND THEN ACROSS THE RIDGE 
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 
ABOUT 130W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER N OF THE AREA AT 37N140W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N137W TO NEAR 
24N125W. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 
121W. A WEAK TROUGH SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED 
ABOVE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N121W TO NEAR 29N137W. 
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA SW TO 29N116W TO NEAR 
22N125W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS RELATED TO THESE TROUGHS.  
LINGERING NW SWELLS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN W OF A LINE FROM 
30N135W TO 20N133W TO 06N125W WILL DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE 
FROM 06N-11N W OF 131W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW 
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAR NE PORTION IN ABOUT 30 
HOURS AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THAT AREA.

GAP WINDS...                                                   
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 20-30 KT WINDS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS 
THIS EVENING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BY LATE TONIGHT USHERING ANOTHER PULSE OF 
NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL THEN CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE