000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC THU JAN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE 
BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT...AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI 
AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 05N90W TO 04N95W TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
THROUGH A CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N118W TO 08N126W. MONSOON 
TROUGH IS DIFFUSE AND ILL-DEFINED NEAR SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN 
WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
W OF 120W AND 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LINGERING FT NW SWELL W OF 118W 
WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN SIZE AND DECAY THROUGH FRI. COMBINED 
COMPONENT OF NW SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE 8-9 FT SEAS 
FROM 05N-20N W OF 130W THROUGH SAT. PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED 
BY HIGH WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO 
WILL DOMINATE SEAS E OF 100W. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS NEAR THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL PRODUCE AN 
AREA OF HIGH SEAS TO 9 FT N OF 29N E OF 122W BY SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TONIGHT...REACHING 25-30 KT EARLY FRI MORNING...AND GENERATE 
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO 9-10 FT. WINDS AFTERWARD WILL PULSE TO 20-25 
KT FRI THROUGH SUN DURING DIURNAL PEAK DRAINAGE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z.

$$
MUNDELL