000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC THU JAN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ABOUT 24 HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND 
FRI. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE 35 KT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 14 FT TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N92W TO 04N99W. ITCZ 
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 04N99W TO 05N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 
130W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER WITH AXIS FROM 
10N138W TO 20N138W TO BEYOND 30N123W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH 
IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 20N109W TO 13N124W. BOTH RIDGE AND 
TROUGH HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FURTHER E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS ALSO E OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
E OF 92W. 

ON THE SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 30N132W PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 15N W 
OF 110W. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT AS A 
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO S CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI. THE 
WEAK RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W OF 120W 
THROUGH THU MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LINGERING 
8-10 FT NW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W WILL CONTINUE TO 
SHRINK IN SIZE AND DECAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED COMPONENT 
OF NW SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE 8-9 FT SEAS W OF 130W 
THU AND FRI. A PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE HIGH WINDS 
DOWNSTREAM FROM GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL DOMINATE 
SEAS E OF 100W. 

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON THU 
...FRI...AND SAT...MORNINGS. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30 KT AND SEAS 
WILL INCREASE TO 9 FT EACH MORNING AND SPREAD WESTWARD TO 90W 
FROM 8N-12N. 

$$
FORMOSA