000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC WED JAN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ABOUT 24 HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND 
FRI. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ARE 35 KT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 14 FT TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 02N79W TO 05N90W TO 04N100W TO 06N120W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 94W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 
06N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS AT UPPER LEVELS W 
OF 100W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 18N110W TO 13N125W. A BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS 
IS FROM 15N140W THROUGH 24N130W TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER 
TROUGH IS W OF THE AREA ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FURTHER E 
...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO E OF 90W WITH AXIS ALONG 
83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 92W. 

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
31N131W PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 115W. THE 
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO S CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK RIDGE WILL 
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W OF 120W THROUGH THU 
MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LINGERING 8-10 FT NW 
SWELL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN SIZE 
AND DECAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED COMPONENT OF NW SWELL AND 
WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE 8-9 FT SEAS W OF 130W THU AND FRI. A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE HIGH WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL DOMINATE SEAS E OF 100W.

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THU AND THU NIGHT...REACHING 25-30 KT EARLY FRI MORNING...AND 
GENERATE WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS AFTERWARD WILL PULSE 
TO 20-25 KT FRI THROUGH SUN DURING DIURNAL PEAK DRAINAGE BETWEEN 
03Z-12Z.

$$
MUNDELL/FORMOSA