000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC WED JAN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE 
WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOUT 24 HOURS THROUGH 
THU AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI. HIGHEST WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 40 KT EARLY THU MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 14-15 FT TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY THU NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N79W TO 04N91W TO 07N115W TO 05N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS AT UPPER LEVELS W 
OF 100W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO THROUGH 20N110W TO 15N122W. A BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS IS FROM 
15N137W THROUGH 25N130W TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS W OF THE AREA ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

AS NOTED ABOVE...THE MONSOON TROUGH NORMALLY FOUND E OF 100W HAS 
BECOME DIFFUSE AND INSIGNIFICANT. SHALLOW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION 
ARE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
W OF 95W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 31N130W PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 115W. 
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH 
PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO S CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK 
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W OF 120W THROUGH 
THU MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LINGERING 8-10 FT 
NW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 120W WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN 
SIZE AND DECAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. COMBINED COMPONENT OF NW SWELL 
AND WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE 8-9 FT SEAS W OF 130W THU AND FRI. A 
PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE HIGH WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WILL DOMINATE SEAS E OF 100W.

GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THU NIGHT...REACHING 25-30 KT EARLY FRI MORNING...AND GENERATE 
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS AFTERWARD WILL PULSE TO 20-25 
KT FRI THROUGH SUN DURING DIURNAL PEAK DRAINAGE BETWEEN 03Z-12Z.

$$
MUNDELL