000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC WED JAN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING WILL 
CREATE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STARTING WED MORNING AROUND 18Z 
AND CONTINUING ABOUT 30 HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 KT EARLY THU MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 14-15 FT WED NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N783W TO 04N110W TO 06N120W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 
115W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 10N W 125W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 25N105W 
TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N117W. DIVERGENT UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS EAST OF THE UPPER LOWS. AN AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED 
CLOUDINESS AND FEW SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 97W 
AND 105W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E PACIFIC FROM 
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W. 

ON THE SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 31N128W PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 135W. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES BEYOND NW 
WATERS FROM 35N135W TO 30N140W TO E OF HAWAII NEAR 18N155W. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO S CALIFORNIA THU AND FRI. THE 
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 120W THROUGH 
THU MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LARGE NW SWELL 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA W OF 115W WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN 
FAR NW PORTION WILL SHRINK IN AREAL EXTENT AND DECAY THROUGH THU 
NIGHT. A PLUME OF NE SWELL WILL GENERATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER 29/1800 UTC FOR 48-72 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA