000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC TUE JAN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING WILL 
CREATE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STARTING WED MORNING AROUND 18Z 
AND CONTINUING ABOUT 30 HOURS THROUGH THU EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 KT EARLY THU MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 14-15 FT WED NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N78W TO 04N100W TO 05N120W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 102W 
ANS 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 10N W 125W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO A SMALL UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 25N107W 
TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
15N118W. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EAST OF THE UPPER LOWS. 
AN AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND FEW SHOWERS ARE INLAND 
OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE E PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W ANS 115W. 

ON THE SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1027 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 33N127W PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 135W. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES BEYOND NW 
WATERS FROM 35N135W TO 30N140W TO E OF HAWAII NEAR 18N155W. 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY NEAR THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A 
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO S CALIFORNIA THU AND FRI. THE 
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 120W THROUGH 
THU MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT WIND WAVES. LARGE NW SWELL 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA W OF 115W WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN 
FAR NW PORTION WILL SHRINK IN AREAL EXTENT AND DECAY THROUGH THU 
NIGHT...WITH COMBINED COMPONENT OF SWELL AND WIND WAVES BECOMING 
ONLY REGION WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FT AFTERWARDS...EXCEPT FOR 
PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE HIGH WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
MUNDELL/FORMOSA