000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC TUE JAN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING WILL 
CREATE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STARTING WED MORNING AROUND 18Z 
AND CONTINUING ABOUT 24 HOURS THROUGH THU MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40 KT EARLY THU MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 14-15 FT WED NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 02N82W...THEN ITCZ AXIS 
TO 04N91W TO 06N112W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS 
NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 15N118W. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER LOW 
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND FEW SHOWERS 
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. 

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N127W 
PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 140W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES BEYOND NW WATERS FROM 35N135W TO 
30N140W TO HAWAII. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 31N129W THROUGH WED NIGHT 
THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO 
S CALIFORNIA THU AND FRI. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-FRESH 
TRADE WINDS W OF 120W THROUGH THU MORNING...AND GENERATE 4-5 FT 
WIND WAVES. LARGE NW SWELL PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA W OF 115W 
WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN FAR NW PORTION WILL SHRINK IN AREAL 
EXTENT AND DECAY THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH COMBINED COMPONENT OF 
SWELL AND WIND WAVES BECOMING ONLY REGION WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 
7 FT AFTERWARDS...EXCEPT FOR PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THE 
HIGH WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
MUNDELL