000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1005 UTC TUE JAN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 
2-4 FT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE. BY TUE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
REGION WILL TIGHTEN WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
DEVELOPING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT...INCREASING TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS 
GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 14 FT 
BY WED EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 4N78W TO 2N80W TO 3N85W. ITCZ FROM 
3N85W TO 5N95W TO 7N115W TO 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 15N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 20N W 
OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 15N120W. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH. A SW 95-105 KT 
JETSTREAM FROM JUST SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N12W ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS

LARGE NW SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY W OF 115W 
WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE 
AREA OF SWELL DECREASE IN SIZE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS