000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC TUE JAN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 
2-4 FT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
UNDER A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE. BY TUE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
REGION WILL TIGHTEN WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
DEVELOPING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT...INCREASING TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS 
GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 14 FT 
BY WED EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N79W TO 02N84W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N84W TO 06N110W TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF A LINE 
FROM 04N104W TO 06N109W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AT 32N126W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 25N119W TO 16N105W. MEANWHILE 1005 MB 
LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH BROAD 
TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE NW OVER NW MEXICO. THIS SET UP IS 
ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPILLING OUT SOUTHWARD TO 22N. 
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE S A BIT TOWARD CABO 
CORRIENTES BY EARLY TUE WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 8-9 FT. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN N OF THE ITCZ IN THE 
VICINITY OF 120W FOR DAYS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. ALL ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W...ALONG WITH NW SWELL 
AT 8-13 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. THE NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO 
DECAY TO A MAXIMUM OF 11 FT BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO A MAXIMUM OF 
10 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE RETRACTING TO ROUGHLY W OF 120W.

SOME RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STORM/GALE EVENT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE...COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 
100W AND 110W. THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 
20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID 
WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY