000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 
2-4 FT SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA 
UNDER A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TUE. BY TUE NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
REGION WILL TIGHTEN WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
DEVELOPING IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF LATE TUE NIGHT...INCREASING TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY WED MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS 
GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FEW EVENTS. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT 
BY WED AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N80W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W 
AND 107W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1023 MB HIGH PRES AT 12N126W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE TO THE SE THROUGH 21N111W TO 13N95W. MEANWHILE BROAD 
SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING IS 
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE NW MEXICAN COAST IN 
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL TIGHTEN 
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
AND RESULTANT SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD 
TO THE S A BIT TOWARD CABO CORRIENTES BY EARLY TUE...DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT OR LESS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ STRETCHING FROM 20N124W 
TO 10N121W. STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT NEAR THE TROUGH 
YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W...ALONG WITH NW 
SWELL AT 8-13 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. THE NW SWELL IS FORECAST 
TO DECAY TO A MAXIMUM OF 12 FT BY 24 HOURS...THEN TO A MAXIMUM 
OF 10 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE RETRACTING TO ROUGHLY W OF 120W.

SOME RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STORM/GALE EVENT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW 
SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE...COVERING THE WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 110W. THIS AREA OF MIXED SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY 48 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHICH IS HIGHER 
THAN ANY AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. EXPECT THESE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY