000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ FROM 06N85W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...CUTTING OFF A MID/UPPER 
LOW NEAR 14N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW 
EXTENDS FROM 20N122W TO 10N120W. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE 
DEFORMATION AREA BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW AND THE SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH TO THE NE WAS ENHANCING A LARGE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
ACTIVE DURING THE LATE EVENING FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W...BUT THIS HAS LARGELY DECREASED. THE UPPER FORCING 
CONTINUES INTERACT WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO 
SUPPORT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W. 

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...WITH 
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO FORM NEAR 
30N125W. THE WEAKNESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH THE 
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH PRECLUDE 
SUBSTANTIAL TRADE FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SCATTEROMETER AND 
TOGA BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. FARTHER TO THE 
NW...FRESH SW FLOW IS NOTED ON AN 08 UTC ASCAT PASS N OF 28N W 
OF 135W...BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH AND A STALLING 
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH HAWAII AND APPROACHING THE AREA 
FROM THE WEST.

THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOWING 
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE UPPER 
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH...RESULTING IN TRADE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT BY 
WED.

ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS OF 8 
TO 12 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W...MOSTLY DUE TO 
SUCCESSIVE SETS OF NW SWELL GENERATED FROM A DEEP LOW PRES 
SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. WAVE MODELS SHOW THIS SWELL 
WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT FROM EAST TO WEST DESPITE NEWLY ARRIVING 
SWELL FROM THE NW...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER CONTAINED W OF 
115W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PASSAGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH N WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TO CABO CORRIENTES LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE...POSSIBLY 
REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 KT...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TUE.

GAP WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA OTHER THAN OVERNIGHT PULSES TO 20 KT IN 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT INTO WED WILL BRING STRONG GAP 
FLOW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED...INCREASING TO 
GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THU AS THE 
AIRMASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SIMILARLY EXPECT 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW THROUGH PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT INTO THU.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE 
SWELL PERSIST S OF 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE TUE.

$$
CHRISTENSEN