000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC MON JAN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N86W TO 06N92W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 04N100W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W... 

A COLD FRONT IS W OF THE NW CORNER FROM 30N144W TO BEYOND 
24N154W. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE 
REACHING 140W THROUGH LATE MON...ALLOWING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY 
FLOW IN THE NW CORNER TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N127W...NEARLY STATIONARY. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS FROM 16N122W TO 11N126W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 
133W WITH AXIS ALONG 126W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS AXIS 
IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS DRIFTING E AND MAY SOON FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 
16N127W. 
 
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8 
TO 12 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THIS IS DUE TO 
SUCCESSIVE SETS OF NW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. 
 
E OF 110W... 

A LARGER AREA OF SEAS IS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDS FROM 01N TO 
13N BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. THESE SEAS ARE A RESULT OF SHORT PERIOD 
NE SWELL GENERATED FROM AN EARLIER STORM FORCE EVENT IN 
TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL 
BE SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY TUE AS SWELL DECAYS. 

GAP WINDS...

PRESENTLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ONLY 10 KT. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED WED OR WED NIGHT AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED 
TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS EVENT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
SHOULD BE WEAKER.

20 TO 25 KT N FLOW IN THE GULF OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED FOR THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. 

IN 12 HOURS 20 TO 25 KT N TO E FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS 
EXPECTED FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W. THESE WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED 
TO LAST FOR A BRIEF 6 HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA