000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
2205 UTC SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N91W TO 04N100W TO 06N120W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W... 

A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NW CORNER AND HAS REACHED 
30N145W. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE 
REACHING 140W THROUGH LATE MON...ALLOWING THE STRONG SOUTHERLY 
FLOW TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF 
S CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS 
FROM 20N124W TO 12N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 126W. OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 08N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W WITH AXIS ALONG 
128W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS AXIS IS ENHANCING THE 
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIFTING 
E AND MAY SOON FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 15N123W. 
 
RECENT ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 8 
TO 12 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THIS IS DUE TO 
SUCCESSIVE SETS OF NW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

 
E OF 110W...

HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...ALLOWING GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS...AS HINTED BY REPORTS FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC 
TERMINUS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE  
NEXT ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED 
WED OR WED NIGHT AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE 
PREVIOUS EVENT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WEAKER.

A LARGER AREA OF SEAS IS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING FROM 03N TO 
14N BETWEEN 95W TO 110W. THESE SEAS ARE A RESULT OF SHORT PERIOD 
NE SWELL GENERATED FROM AN EARLIER STORM FORCE EVENT IN 
TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL 
BE SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY TUE AS SWELL DECAYS. 

FRESH N FLOW IN THE GULF OF PANAMA IS EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF 
RESURGENCE TO 20 KT EXPECTED EARLY MON AND TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN/FORMOSA