000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W... 
UPPER FORCING RELATED TO A SHARP MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG 127W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY HAVE FORMED AS WELL FROM 12N TO 20N 
ALONG 125W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT HAS KEPT SURFACE HIGH PRES IN 
THE SUBTROPICS RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH IN TURN HAS LIMITED TRADE 
WIND DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG 
WITH TOGA TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADE WIND FLOW N OF THE ITCZ. 

FARTHER TO THE NW...A SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 135W...RELATED TO A DEEP 
SURFACE LOW IN THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 42N145W...HEADING 
NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CURRENTLY AND IS APPROACHING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME 
DIFFUSE BEFORE PENETRATING E OF 140W THROUGH LATE MON...ALLOWING 
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.

MEANWHILE RECENT ALTIMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THIS IS DUE 
TO SUCCESSIVE SETS OF NW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF NEAR 
15N123W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM 15N140W TO NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH FORMS NEAR 
31N127W THROUGH TUE...WITH TRADE WIND FLOW INCREASING TO 15 TO 
20 KT N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N. WAVE MODELS SHOW THE NW SWELL 
GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 
8 FT N OF 08N W OF 120W BY MID WEEK.
 
E OF 110W...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY...ALLOWING GAP WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS...AS HINTED BY REPORTS FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE PACIFIC 
TERMINUS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE GFS 
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...INDICATED A SLIGHTLY LATER 
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS EXPECTED WED OR WED NIGHT AND IS NOT 
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS EVENT AS HIGH PRES N 
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WEAKER.

AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14 UTC SHOWED SEAS UP TO 10 FT NEAR 
09N103W...INDICATIVE OF A LARGER AREA OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT 
EXTENDING FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W TO 110W. THESE SEAS ARE A 
RESULT OF SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM AN EARLIER STORM 
FORCE EVENT IN TEHUANTEPEC MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. 
THESE SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY TUE AS SWELL DECAYS. 

FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS 
MORNING DUE IN PART TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW IS DIMINISHING. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN BELOW THE STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS 
DUE TO WEAKENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. SIMILARLY FRESH N FLOW 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL DIMINISH 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A BRIEF RESURGENCE TO 20 KT EXPECTED 
EARLY MON AND TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN