000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 07N82W TO 06N90W. ITCZ FROM 06N90W 
TO 03N100W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1027 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 
SUPPORTING 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SUN  
EVENING WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS JUST DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE... BUT 
REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOCAL 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES 
SHOULD NOT RESURGE TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH MON INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATES THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH THE GULF. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 20 KT. WINDS WILL RESURGE 
AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS 
WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AFTRENOON AND RESURGE AGAIN SUN NIGHT 
INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 
THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE 20 KT GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS REACHING AS 
FAR SOUTH AS 05N DUE TO ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MON AFTERNOON.  

ELSEWHERE E OF 105W...SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN SHORTER PERIOD NE 
SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO EVENTS...MIXED WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN 
AN AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS FROM GENERALLY 05N TO 15N W OF 95W 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE SEAS OF 
8 TO 10 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH UP TO 15 FT 
N OF 29N W OF 135W...WHERE SCATTEROMETER IS ALSO INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING NW OF THE 
AREA. THE HIGHER SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE DUE TO A LARGE OF NW SWELL 
THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...

W OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N138W TO 30N130W TO 10N128W. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 
25N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INHIBITING STRONG HIGH PRES FROM FORMING OVER 
THE SUBTROPICS...THUS KEEPING RELATIVELY MODEST TRADE WIND FLOW 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO THE SE THEN BECOME CUTOFF WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N125W BY MON. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL FORM 
NW OF THIS LOW CENTER...WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 30N125W BY MON. THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TRADE 
FRESH WIND FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W. 
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W BY MON WHERE LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER FORCING E OF THE CUT OFF 
LOW.

$$
FORMOSA