000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251542
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
1605 UTC SAT JAN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
OVER NE MEXICO BEHIND A STALLED FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SW 
GULF LATE YESTERDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ALONG WITH A PUSH OF COOLER AND DENSER AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTED IN WINDS TO STORM FORCE INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS ARE STARTING 
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE AIRMASS 
MODIFIES. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 
REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE 
TO LOCAL NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAKENING 
HIGH PRES SHOULD NOT RESURGE TO GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIMINISH MON INTO TUE. LOOKING AHEAD...CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL 
MODELS INDICATES THE NEXT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WILL BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH THE GULF. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W 
TO 03N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE GULF 
OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WHICH IN TURN IS INTERACTING WITH LOCAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE IMPACTS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO 
9 FT IN SHORT PERIOD E SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY 
AFTERNOON...THEN RESURGE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS 
WILL TREND DOWNWARD SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PANAMA ISTHMUS 
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 06N DUE TO ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF MINOR RESURGENCE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE E OF 110W...SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN SHORTER PERIOD NE 
SWELL FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO EVENTS...MIXED WITH 
LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN 
AN AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS FROM GENERALLY 05N TO 15N W OF 95W 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT NW FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS NOTED IN A 0630 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS WILL LIKELY 
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

W OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
40N15OW TO 30N135W TO 13N130W. THIS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 
130W.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS INHIBITING STRONG HIGH PRES FROM FORMING OVER 
THE SUBTROPICS...THUS KEEPING RELATIVELY MODEST TRADE WIND FLOW 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO THE SE THEN BECOME CUTOFF WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N125W BY MON. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL FORM 
NW OF THIS LOW CENTER...WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED 
NEAR 30N125W BY MON. THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW TRADE 
FRESH WIND FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W. 
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG AND WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W BY MON WHERE LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER FORCING E OF THE CUT OFF 
LOW.

A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE SEAS OF 
8 TO 10 FT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH UP TO 14 FT 
N OF 28N W OF 135W...WHERE SCATTEROMETER IS ALSO INDICATED FRESH 
TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING NW OF THE 
AREA. THE HIGHER SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE DUE TO A LARGE OF NW SWELL 
THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN