000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242136 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JAN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-45 KT BY 00 UTC THIS EVENING AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. IF 18 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF ARRIVING INDICATES A GREATER CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE...THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12 UTC SAT (PERHAPS A FEW HOURS BEYOND 12 UTC). RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE S-SW WHILE MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N91W TO 03N100W TO 10N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EXTENDING FROM 32N138W TO 22N140W. ASSOCIATED WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS WHILE CONVECTION ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STALL TONIGHT BEFORE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT TROUGH BY EARLY SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY W OF 140W WILL BREACH 30N140W BY MID SAT MORNING WITH A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT EARLY SAT. A MORE PRONOUNCED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CORNER BY LATE SAT NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SUN. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 22-24 SECONDS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 100W. PEAK SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W. NEW REINFORCING SETS OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM THE W-NW THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUING TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH SUN. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DIURNAL PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER AND DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 90W. THESE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUN. WIND- DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8-10 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6-7 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF BETWEEN WIND SURGES. GULF OF PANAMA...CURRENTLY THERE IS A BRIEF LULL IN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...DIMINISHING BY SAT EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 8 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH LEVELS IN MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF BY SAT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY STRONGER. $$ LEWITSKY