000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JAN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...ANOTHER EPISODE OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL REGION OF MEXICO HAS INITIATED GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF AS OF 12 UTC THIS MORNING. N TO NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...BUT ARE FORECAST TO REACH 45 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES OVER NE MEXICO AND SW TEXAS INTENSIFIES FURTHER. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH UPWELLING CONTINUES TO EXIST WITHIN AND NEAR THE REGION OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON SAT...AND TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE CULPRIT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO SLACKENS. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 16 FT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SAT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10 FT ON SUN AS THE N TO NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 05N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N91W TO 04N100W TO 05N112W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-111W AND ALSO BETWEEN 122W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW NOW WELL N OF THE AREA OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SSE THROUGH 32N126W TO 26N123W TO 22N121W AND TO NEAR 15N116W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 123W FROM 16N TO 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXIST FROM 11N TO 19N E OF THE TROUGH TO 110W. A SHARP NW TO SE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EASTWARD IS W OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N133W TO 26N127W TO 19N124W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NE AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY EARLY ON SAT AS A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 29N140W TO 19N137W MOVES EASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE NNE THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 32N138W 25N137W TO 19N140W. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N136W TO 16N140W EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO A REMNANT TROUGH AS IT EXTENDS BY LATE TONIGHT AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 33N135W TO 15N140W. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED. THE MAIN STORY...HOWEVER...WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THE LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS OF GREATER THAN 20 SECONDS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT NEAR 30N140W...AND THE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 100W. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 15 FT BY LATE SAT EVENING WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO COVER THE WATERS W OF 100W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIURNAL PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND FROM PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8-10 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS...BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF BETWEEN WIND SURGES. GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF SPREADING DOWNWIND TO 04N-05N AS THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SUPPORTING THE PAPAGAYO WIND EVENTS ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS TIME SAT. $$ AGUIRRE