000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
0405 UTC FRI JAN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                              

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE 
AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...WHILE RESIDUAL NE SWELL FROM A RECENT 
HIGH WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL TO 
THE S AND SW OF THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS AT 8-11 FT ARE WITHIN AN 
AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 12N100W TO 12N90W TO 03N90W TO 
00N100W TO 12N100W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION 
FROM THE NW-N MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRI. STRONG 1043 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER TEXAS 
WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING WELL TO THE SE-S ALONG THE EASTERN 
SLOPES OF MEXICO TOWARD THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA...EVEN OUT AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL RAPIDLY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A GALE WARNING 
COMMENCES AT 12 UTC FRI AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC 
SUN. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 40-45 KT OVERNIGHT FRI...ALTHOUGH 
MINIMAL STORM FORCE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AND CONDITIONS 
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE WARNING NEEDS TO BE 
UPGRADED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PLENTIFUL UPWELLING OCCURRED 
WITH THE PREVIOUS AND RECENT GALE EVENT...AND ASSUMING THAT SSTS 
ARE NOT ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND WINDS 
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH STORM FORCE.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N79W TO 03N83W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N83W TO 06N90W TO 04N103W TO 10N121W...THEN 
RESUMES FROM 10N127W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING 
FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW AT 31N127W SSE THROUGH 20N125W TO A 
SHARP BASE NEAR 10N121W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 19N120W TO 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT ABOUT 600 NM NE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH...WHILE A SHARP RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 134W N OF 18N. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT 
NE AND DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS ANOTHER UPPER 
TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF 140W MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK NW 
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN TO THE NNE THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG 140W.

THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM 
A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 20N140W BY EARLY FRI...THEN WILL 
FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT TROUGH AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 
16N140W BY FRI EVENING. PRECEDING FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS IN 
THE NW CORNER WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES WHILE 
WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED LARGE LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 
GREATER THAN 20 SECONDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE SE OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FT 
NEAR 30N140W...AND THE SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE 
ENTIRE WATERS W OF 100W. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 18 FT 
BY EARLY FRI...THEN TO 15 FT BY LATE SAT EVENING WHILE SEAS OF 8 
FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO COVER THE WATERS W OF 100W.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
DIURNAL PULSES OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND FROM 
PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 90W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND-DRIVEN SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8-10 FT DURING THE PEAK WINDS...BRIEFLY 
SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF BETWEEN WIND SURGES.

GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 
FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF SPREADING DOWNWIND TO  
04N-05N AS THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SUPPORTING THE 
PAPAGAYO WIND EVENTS ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS TIME SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY